Historical Background
In the 1990’s studies and papers were presented by various authors looking at touring pro golfers and amateur golfers of all skill levels. There are three phases of a golfer’s life: a period of rapid improvement while the player learns the game, a long plateau where his/her scores change little, and then a slow decline in scoring. These studies calculated that for all skill levels, the loss of ability for male golfers translates to a decline of one stroke for every eight years once a player reaches “senior” status, but it accelerates after the player reaches age 75. After the age of 60, men lose about 2 percent of their muscle mass and about 3 percent of their dynamic force each year. Just as aging is inevitable, so are higher average scores.
Who Shoots His Age?
Realistically, it is unlikely that a player younger than 66 will shoot their age unless they are an exceptional super senior. Many players on the PGA Champions Tour have done it, but they are the best senior players in the world. Sam Snead did it almost every time he teed it up for a casual round, once he reached 75 years old.
According to websites that keep track of this matter, the youngest golfer to have done it was Bob Hamilton. Hamilton, the 1944 PGA Championship winner, who shot his age of 59 at Hamilton Golf Club in Evansville, Ind., in 1975, … and the oldest was 103-year-old Arthur Thompson of Victoria, British Columbia. Thompson was playing the Uplands Golf Club in Victoria when he accomplished the feat in 1972.
Unfortunately, there is very little data available for regular golfers to indicate which type of golfer actually shoots his/her age and how often they do. The USGA has 18-hole scores for millions of golfers and hundreds of millions of rounds. But what they do not have is the age of the golfers.
Some private clubs keep track of such data for their members and what seems to be the trend is only one or two members frequently shoot their age. Thus, it seems that, shooting one’s age is hard to do for most senior golfers, but for those who can do it, they do it many times.
The Hypothetical Model
There are some mathematical observations used in calculating the probability of shooting one’s age.
1.) If all the scores of a golfer are plotted, the graph takes on a Bell-Shaped curve skewed toward the high side. (It’s easier to shoot a higher-than-average score than a lower-than-average score.)
2.) Typically, as the average score goes up, the spread of scores goes up as well. That is, the higher a player’s average score, in general, the higher the standard deviation (the higher the spread of scores from lowest to highest).
3.) Generally, but not always, the higher the handicap, the higher a player’s range of scores (standard deviation) will be. According to a study by the USGA, a standard deviation of three strokes is quite common for low, single-digit handicappers, four or five strokes for bogey golfers, and as much as six or more strokes for double bogey golfers. (Very simply, to estimate your own standard deviation, you can divide the difference of your highest score to your lowest by 6.)
4.) A player’s maximum potential to shoot a certain low score is three standard deviations below his average. So, a 71 is likely the best score for someone who shoots 80 on average. Not that they couldn’t have a miracle round better than that, but it is highly unlikely.
5.) As a player enters his Senior years (age 66) his score goes up by 1/8 to 1/2 strokes per year and accelerates after the age of 75.
The Nine Stroke Rule
Using the three standard deviation guidelines, to have any chance of shooting their age, a golfer should play a course for which their average score is no more than nine strokes higher than his age, although that probability is (depending on the standard deviation) well below 1 percent. Beyond nine strokes, unless the player’s standard deviation is much higher than three strokes, the probability of shooting his age is essentially zero. On the other hand, the closer the average score is to his age, the probability goes up quickly to where, when age equals the average score, the chances of shooting your age is 50 percent.
The Deterioration Rate
As mentioned above, a player’s average score increases with age. This “Deterioration Rate” is thought to be about 1/8 stroke per year after the age of 66, or 1 stroke loss per 8 years. This rate can be very variable however and may be as high as 1/2 stoke per year. Because of this, there is a “optimal” age for individual golfers where deterioration rate is slow as his age increases. This is where golf fitness, injury prevention, and continued skills development helps one to shoot his age. The goal is to maintain your average score for as long as possible and to keep golfing for as long as possible.
Probability of Shooting One’s Age in a Year
Shooting Your Age At Least Once in Your Lifetime
To estimate the probability of shooting your age at least once in a lifetime requires even more assumptions. First, it requires an estimate of the deterioration rate of average scores as a player age (conditioning). Second, it depends on when the golfer essentially stops playing (longevity). Third, it depends on your average score at the age of 66 (skill level).
Clearly, the lower the initial scoring average, the better the chances. With these assumptions, a player who averages 80 with a standard deviation of three strokes at age 66 who loses one-eighth of a stroke per year and continues playing at least until 80 is virtually assured of shooting his age at least once in his playing lifetime. However, even with these assumptions, a player who averages 90 at age 66 has to keep playing until at least 88 to have a good chance of doing it just once.
Golfers with a higher standard deviation would have a higher probability of shooting their age and golfers with a higher deterioration rate would have a lower probability of shooting their age. If the deterioration rate is increased by just a factor of 2 (half a stroke per year), the probability of shooting your age goes to zero.
So How Do You Shoot Your Age?
1.) The Nine Stroke Rule – Play on courses that your average score is no more than nine strokes higher than your age. Even better try for 5-6 strokes higher than your age.
Tip: Play on courses that allow you to hit Greens In Regulation. 3 GIR to break 90, 8 GIR to break 80, 13 GIR to break 70. Also, consider the length of the course. Typically, to gain one stroke, play 200 yards shorter. So, playing 1,000 yards shorter should get you 5 strokes.
Non-Tip: Play “No Stress Golf”. NOT really recommended when trying to achieve a Personal Record worth talking about.
Note: Only courses 6,000 yards and longer and PAR 72 are considered by some when recognizing an “Age Shooter”.
2.) Deterioration Rate – Minimize your deterioration rate with health and fitness programs, lessons, working on areas of your game that need help, equipment optimization, just to name a few.
